The Woolly Worm Forecast!

Armstrong Wins!

Eleven-year-old Olivia King of Raleigh, NC and her father Tom pose with Armstrong, the woolly worm who outpaced 1,400 other caterpillars Saturday for the honor of proclaiming the official winter weather forecast at the 30th annual Woolly Worm Festival in Banner Elk.

Mountain folk use the brown and black stripes on the woolly worm to predict the severity of the coming winter.

According to Armstrong, the first four weeks of winter will be cold and snowy. The 5th and 6th weeks will be cold, while weeks 7 and 8 will be cold with light snow. Armstrong says to expect a mild spell during weeks 10 and 11 with a cold an snowy close to the winter in weeks 12 and 13.

The winter weather forecast is an important subject for the people of Banner Elk, a one-stop-light village nestled between the three largest ski slopes in the High South. For 30 years they have raced the black and brown striped worms to determine which one worm deserves the honor of making the winter weather forecast. Tradition says that the black stripes predict cold and snowy weather while brown stripes point toward milder conditions. Over thirty years, the woolly worm has been all or mostly correct eighty-five percent of the time.

The Woolly Worm forecast is determined racing worms and of course the one that wins the race is the official forecast worm. Check out the race below!

Each Woolly Worm has 13 sections each of which represent one week of winter. Black lines of the worm represent a cold and snowy week and brown section a warmer week.

JOE BASTARDI'S ACCUWEATHER.COM WINTER FORECAST STATE COLLEGE, Pa. – October 8, 2008 – AccuWeather.com Chief Long-Range Forecaster Joe Bastardi today released his 2008–09 Winter Season Forecast addressing issues of average temperature and precipitation impacting the nation. His forecast calls for one of the coldest winters in several years across much of the East.

The core of cold was centered across the Great Plains last year but is expected to be farther east this year. Bastardi says the winter of 2008-2009 will be viewed as the hardest in several years. “It may be a shock to some when compared with the above-average temperatures of last year in the East. It will put some ‘brrrrrr’ in the saddle of folks who have not had to deal with such things for a while," he cautions.

"In the eastern half of the nation, people will look at the winter as bookends of cold," Bastardi said. He says the overall colder and snowier winter will be off to a cold start in December with perhaps the roughest winter month for much of the nation. It may finish with another cold spell in late January and February.

Between the bookends of cold, Bastardi expects "the January thaw of old winter lore" but it will offer only a temporary break to consumers. "The winter as a whole in the population-dense eastern third of the nation will be a one-two punch of higher heating prices and lower temperatures. Given this economic environment, the winter could push some homeowners to the brink,” he concludes. In some cases, homeowners trying to keep their residences as warm as last winter could spend hundreds of dollars more this heating season.

Temperatures across most of the West will be warmer than last year and should be warmer than normal, which will help consumers by keeping heating cost increases in check. The northern Rockies and Northwest will still have more snow than normal but not as much as last year, where some locations developed a snow pack that reached twice normal levels.

The Great Plains was blasted by snow last year and many communities ran very low on salt to keep roads clear of ice. Despite the elevated cost of salt this winter season, these areas will receive a break in the form of less snow than last year. Unfortunately, the East will not turn out as lucky, as more snowfall than last year is expected.

Here are additional signs of what could be around the corner this winter. An additional wives tales involves the hornet's nest and the height at which they are built. The higher the hornet's nest the colder the winter and the deeper the snow will be. Normally, most hornets nests are built at eye level. This year most have been built right around eye level! This would indicate that this winter would be normal and this winter will enjoy normal precipitation.

Winter Prediction by Persimmon Seed by Dee Dee Gentry.

According to the old-timers, persimmon seeds can be used to predict the severity of the winter weather. When cut in two pieces, the persimmon seed will display one of three symbols. A knife shape indicates a cold and icy winter (where the wind will cut through you like a knife). A fork shape will indicate a mild winter. A spoon shape stands for a shovel to dig out from the snow.

Persimmon Seed Analysis:

The following seeds were taken from different trees and different fruits. A spoon shape on the inside means snow. A knife shape on the inside means ice. A fork shape on the inside means a warm winter with plenty to eat. Here's what we discovered from 10 different seeds:

4 seeds had completely inconclusive results, with shapes inside that resembled nothing but a little stump

3 seeds had spoon images that indicate snow

2 seeds had knife images that indicate ice

1 seed was somewhere in between a spoon and knife

My opinion is that we will have several small snows this year with small accumulation, plus a couple of mild ice storms. You can read what you want into the four inconclusive seeds. In the years I've been doing this, I've never seen that many without a shape inside. I'm not sure what it means.

Well, there you are, Sid. That's it for 2008-2009. - DeeDee

Well here goes with my 2008 - 2009 Weather Forecast for the Triad.....

There has definitely been a shift of the weather pattern that has had firm control of our weather for the last 2 years. The huge high pressure ridge in the Atlantic has finely broken down. This has allowed the end to the drought and the opening up of Gulf moisture. This weather change will have a big part to play into the pattern for this winter. The high pressure breakdown will allow us to drop below in temperature for the winter period. Gulf moisture will be plentiful as well. I feel we will be above normal in perception through the winter months. January through Mid-April we will have almost a weekly Nor'easter type storm off our coast. You heard it right a very stormy 2009!!!

As far as snow is concerned. We are way behind in snowfall over the last 3 years. I think that we should have (2) 4 to 6 inch events. We could have a lot more snow depending on the amount of cold air during the Nor'easters stormy periods that will plague the coastal area.

Summing things up. We will be below in overall temperature. I think we will have a warm period last of Jan into mid Feb. then a below normal end to winter. Again I am looking for 2 large snowfalls and 1 to 2 ice storms. Get the wood on the porch!!

Sid Proctor 2008-2009

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Winter Long Range Forecast by Sid Proctor!

THE FARMERS ALMANAC

North Carolina Winter 2008-2009 Weather/Climate Forecast:

Armstrong Wins!

Winter Prediction by Persimmon Seed by Dee Dee Gentry.